Toll Bros. (TOL) PT Lowered to $181 at UBS

UBS analyst John Lovallo lowered the price target on Toll Bros. (NYSE: TOL) to $181.00 (from $183.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst comments "Following FY4Q25 financial results (link), we slightly lower our price target on TOL shares from $183 to $181, now based on roughly 12.5x our FY27e EPS (12.5x FY26e EPS prior). We roll forward our base year for valuation as TOL is currently operating in its FY26. We maintain our valuation multiple, despite the roll forward, as we continue to believe that 2026 will be a better year for housing. In terms of our estimates, we lower our FY26- FY28 adj EPS from $14.30 to $13.10, $15.70 to $14.45 and $17.20 to $16.25, respectively, as a result of more conservative revenue and margin forecasts. We believe TOL's financial outlook is likely to prove conservative, but recognize the uncertainty that exists in the market today. As a point of reference, the company has exceeded its quarterly delivery unit outlook in 11 of the past 12 quarters by ~5% on average vs the midpoint and has beat its gross margin outlook in each of the past 12 consecutive quarters by ~70bps on average. We reiterate our Buy rating."

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