Stay defensively positioned, JPM's Kolanovic warns again

JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Marko Kolanovic has reiterated his bearish stance on the market once again, urging the bank’s clients to stay defensively positioned.

He also adjusted the bank's investment strategy in response to rising commodity prices and the potential threat of inflation. Along these lines, JPM’s top quant reduced the allocation to government bonds from 3% to 2% and increased the cash allocation from 4% to 5%.

This shift is attributed to the surge in commodity prices, which could lead to higher costs and an extended cycle of interest rate hikes.

“Markets have come under some pressure over the past month, but the so-far modest declines have done little to correct equities’ rich valuations and excessive optimism,” Kolanovic wrote in a client note.

Kolanovic reiterated his defensive approach, maintaining an underweight position in equities and credit, while favoring cash and commodities.

He indicated that a more positive stance on equity markets would be considered if global central banks began lowering interest rates, the situation in Russia's war in Ukraine de-escalated, and economic tensions with China eased.

“However, we see a low chance of either of these scenarios materializing near-term, and think that developments may first need to get worse before they get better. As such, we stay defensive in our model portfolio.”

He also highlighted the significance of recent geopolitical developments, comparing them to events not seen since the fall of communism. These developments include the war in Ukraine and the emergence of the BRICS nations as a major political bloc, posing potential tail risks to markets.

By Senad Karaahmetovic

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