Raymond James Downgrades ChemoCentryx (CCXI) to Outperform
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Raymond James analyst Steven Seedhouse downgraded ChemoCentryx (NASDAQ: CCXI) from Strong Buy to Outperform with a price target of $51.00 (from $120.00).
The analyst commented, "To be clear, our downgrade to Outperform from Strong Buy is based on reduced conviction in avacopan being approved by July 7 PDUFA given Thursday’s AdCom discussion and vote. However, if approved we still think avacopan is a blockbuster drug and will be adopted as standard of care in ANCA vasculitis (our view supported by physician and patient commentary during open session of the AdCom and even one panelist acknowledging that if approved it will be used as front line alternative to steroids). We’re actually not changing our unadjusted avacopan estimates (~$1.9B peak unadjusted U.S. sales), only our probability of success (now at 50% vs. 100% prior). Yes, we’re calling this a pure coin flip between now and July 7. Avacopan should be approved and we think certain AdCom panelists were unreasonable and unprepared (e.g., wanted larger safety database, more trials, unrealistic trial designs for this serious and rare disease). But a 10-8 vote favoring avacopan on the key risk/benefit question (with one yes qualifying her answer as meaning yes in context of a confirmatory trial) informs our new coin flip model. With the stock halted at $27.49/share before the panel, stock was pricing in ~26% probability of approval (Exhibit 1) so we think stock should actually trade up in the coming days on the basis of our PoS vs. what market was pricing in."
Shares of ChemoCentryx closed at $27.49 yesterday.
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Create E-mail Alert Related CategoriesAnalyst Comments, Downgrades
Related EntitiesRaymond James, PDUFA, AdCom
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