Raymond James: 'China Jan-25 Smartphone Data Below Seasonal'

Raymond James: 'China Jan-25 Smartphone Data Below Seasonal'

The analyst comments "Below seasonal data suggests that smartphone demand didn’t get much boost from subsidies (15% discount for phones below 6,000RMB, with a 500RMB limit). Foreign brands (mostly AAPL) were up 18% m/m in January and fared relatively better although still below typical January seasonality (5-year average +25% m/m). That said, we think it’s a bit early to make a conclusive call on the impact from subsidies since they only went into effect on January 20th. Looking ahead, AAPL is reportedly partnering with Alibaba and Baidu to launch Apple Intelligence in China by May, which could be a potential catalyst (iPhone 16 y/y sales were better in markets where Apple Intelligence was available). From a supplier standpoint, QCOM reported strong growth in premium Android in China in Dec-24Q and guided Handsets revenue to grow 10% y/y (implies down ~10% q/q) for its Mar-25Q. For, QRVO and SWKS, China Android exposure is now relatively small although they should both benefit from potential stabilization of iPhone sales."

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