Q3 Preview: General Mills (GIS) Preannounces and Analysts Remain Unsure

March 9, 2012 3:36 PM EST
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Price: $38.08 +0.26%

Rating Summary:
    6 Buy, 20 Hold, 5 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 7 | Down: 16 | New: 37
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General Mills (NYSE: GIS) shares are trading just about flat on the session ahead of its quarterly report expected out before the market opens Monday morning.

Over the last five quarter, General Mills reported just about in-line earnings versus Street views. For its third quarter, the Street is looking for earnings to grow 7.1 percent to 60 cents per share with revenue of $4.15 billion.

Shares of General Mills stayed about flat in the quarter, ending at $38.31 on February 29th. The stock is up about 0.5 percent since the end of the quarter. General Mills shares have traded within a range of $34.64 to $41.06 over the last 52-week time frame.

Analysts still remain positive on General Mills, with recent Bloomberg data showing 14 at Buy, seven with a Hold, and one maintaining a Sell-equivalent rating on the company. The Street's price target average is $42, with a range of $36 to $46.

Earlier in February, General Mills issued preliminary third-quarter numbers, seeing EPS of 54 cents to 56 cents. Further, General Mills revised its fiscal 2012 earnings outlook lower from a range of $2.59 to $2.61 per share to a new range of $2.53 to $2.55 per share. At the time, the Street consensus called for third-quarter EPS of 60 cents and 2012 EPS of 2.60.

Deutsche Bank issued some comments following the numbers, stating, "Given Smucker's weak volume performance reported yesterday, General Mills' pre-announcement this morning, and sluggish U.S. trends from both Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) and Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), it is clear the U.S. consumer is grappling with the latest price increases implemented across the industry."

Goldman Sachs also commented following the announcement, saying, "Mills’ US Retail volumes are proving susceptible to the broad based center-store packaged food weakness that has recently been apparent in measured channels and other company commentary. Firmspecific challenges in categories such as yogurt are compounding this weakness. We continue to believe that it is poised to see volumes firm as FY13 approaches, but the pace and magnitude of improvement will likely be more protracted than initially expected...we still see a quickly approaching earnings growth inflection point as GIS likely proves an earlier and outsized benefactor of deflation given the nature of its cost basket and hedging practices."

Finally, Wells Fargo said, "Management noted that merchandising comparisons, along with overall volume comps, moderate going forward, making for a more manageable FQ4. While management indicated that early February volumes appear to have returned to more normalized levels, we expect volume headwinds to persist in FY2013 given increased competitive pressure and category weakness in key categories such as yogurt and cereal."Stay tuned to StreetInsider.com's EPS Insider section to see our analysis of the highly-anticipated quarterly results within seconds of their release. You can also check out General Mills' past performance at Streetinsider's General Mills' Income Statement.


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