Nutrien (NTR) PT Lowered to $52 at Mizuho

(Updated - August 8, 2024 7:09 AM EDT)

Mizuho analyst Edlain Rodriguez lowered the price target on Nutrien (NYSE: NTR) to $52.00 (from $55.00) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

The analyst commented: "2Q24 EBITDA of $2.2B in line with our Bloomberg consensus estimate. EPS of $2.34 (down 8%) vs $2.16/$2.18 MSUSAe/consensus. Full-year volume guidance for potash rose slightly (higher expected demand), phosphate volume guided down modestly (on turnaround & mine equipment issues) and nitrogen unchanged. Retail EBITDA guided down 8% on Brazil market instability and delayed US planting in 2Q.

The ag. complex is under pressure due to declining crop prices that will impact farmers' income and incentivize them to minimize expenses instead of maximizing yield. We believe this will make it challenging for fertilizer prices to rise which, in turn, will constrain earnings. Lack of earnings growth and limited prospects for higher fertilizer prices will continue to weigh on sentiment and valuation multiples are likely to remain relatively low until the cycle eventually turns. Maintain Neutral rating and lower PT to $52 (from $55) on reduced earnings and lower peer/market multiples."

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