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Nomura Securities on U.S. Payments: Quarterly Spend Volume Monitor

July 23, 2012 9:34 AM EDT
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Price: $573.10 -0.74%

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Nomura Securities on U.S. Payments: Quarterly Spend Volume Monitor

Analyst, Bill Carcache, said, "We have identified the economic variables with the greatest predictive value for debit, credit, and total purchase volumes for the payment networks. We incorporate these variables into regressions to forecast what they’re telling us about Visa and MasterCard volumes for the June quarter. The overall US macro data we have seen this quarter point to low double-digit volume growth for MasterCard and mid single-digit volume growth for Visa. Our EPS revisions are therefore primarily driven by FX. For MasterCard (NYSE: MA), our 2Q12 / 2012 EPS estimates go to $5.57 / $22.23 (from $5.75 / $22.54). For Visa (NYSE: V), our 3Q12 / 2012 EPS estimates go to $1.42 / $5.98 (from $1.43 / $6.00). We’re leaving our 2013 EPS estimates, price targets, and ratings unchanged at this time. The recently announced merchant litigation settlement is one area that we expect will get lots of attention this quarter."


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