Nomura Securities U.S. Economic Weekly: Modest Increase to Q4 GDP Expectations
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Nomura Securities U.S. Economic Weekly: Modest Increase to Q4 GDP Expectations by David Resler, Ellen Zentner
The US economy has remained surprisingly resilient amid the confidence-shaking turmoil in the financial markets. Available data reinforce our expectations for moderate second-half growth. We now forecast that real GDP will grow at a 3% annual rate in Q4 (up from our prior estimate of +2.9%). Although the recent US data warrant optimism about the near-term outlook, the deepening sovereign debt crisis poses a serious threat to the global economy. Indeed, the crisis already appears to have pushed the eurozone economies to the brink of recession. Meanwhile, activity in other economies (most notably in Asia) has slowed, but none seem to be close to recession.
The US economy has remained surprisingly resilient amid the confidence-shaking turmoil in the financial markets. Available data reinforce our expectations for moderate second-half growth. We now forecast that real GDP will grow at a 3% annual rate in Q4 (up from our prior estimate of +2.9%). Although the recent US data warrant optimism about the near-term outlook, the deepening sovereign debt crisis poses a serious threat to the global economy. Indeed, the crisis already appears to have pushed the eurozone economies to the brink of recession. Meanwhile, activity in other economies (most notably in Asia) has slowed, but none seem to be close to recession.
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