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Nomura Securities Key Takeaways from Fireside Chat with Microsoft (MSFT)

January 11, 2012 10:08 AM EST
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Price: $390.34 -1.86%

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Nomura Securities Key Takeaways from Fireside Chat with Microsoft Corp (Nasdaq: MSFT) at Tech Conference

Analyst, Rick Sherlund, said, "The impact of the recent Thai flooding was probably worse than expected in Q4 11: Management commented that current industry estimates are predicting 1% declines in PC shipments in Q4’11, however these likely underestimate the negative impact that supply constraints have had on PC sales. See our related note on MSFT for more details of our estimate reductions associated with this observation."

"Microsoft is bullish on the current Ultrabook product cycle with Windows 7: Microsoft management was bullish regarding the current product cycle for Ultrabooks with slim, lightweight offerings from vendors such as Samsung, Asus, Lenovo and others. The company believes that these laptops provide a good value at their current price point."

"Ultrabook touch may cause some disruption to PC sales during the transition to Windows 8: Management was hesitant to discuss the next generation of Ultrabook devices that will come with touch capabilities, as well a convertible form factors, which will allow the device to operate as both a laptop and a tablet. We believe Microsoft is concerned that customers will pause in purchasing new devices just ahead of the launch of Windows 8 as the current generation of Ultrabooks will not be able to take full advantage of touch capabilities. We expect some disruption in the calendar Q2 and Q3 timeframe, and believe this is currently in our estimates, but the degree to which current Ultrabooks might help near-term demand is unclear to us."

Other Highlighted Points Include: 1) Microsoft’s Windows App Store has attractive pricing for developers; and 2) Microsoft reiterated that it continues to make headway in combating piracy of its products in emerging markets.

Nomura maintains a Buy rating and $32 price target on MSFT.


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