Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA) PT Lowered to $170 at KeyBanc

KeyBanc analyst Austin Wurschmidt lowered the price target on Mid-America Apartment Communities (NYSE: MAA) to $170.00 (from $180.00) while maintaining an Overweight rating.

The analyst commented: "Dialing Back the Pace, but the Recovery Remains Underway as Supply Pressures Abate; MAA’s revised 2025 outlook reflects a more gradual recovery in Sunbelt apartment fundamentals in the back half of the year, but moderating supply, positive net absorption, historically high retention, and easing comps are expected to drive continued reacceleration in lease rate growth. Notably, July new lease rate growth is MAA’s best month of the year and points toward a widening leasing spread vs. the prior year and accelerating improvement. While we expect Sunbelt apartment fundamentals to remain negatively impacted by elevated levels of new supply relative to historical norms in the near term, the impact should continue to lessen in 2H25 and 2026, as new deliveries in MAA’s markets decrease 50%+ y/y to an estimated ~2% of existing stock. Accordingly, given the stock’s 6.1% implied cap rate vs. a 6% average for the Apartment REITs, and recovering fundamental story, we view valuation as attractive. We reiterate our OW rating but are decreasing our price target to $170 to reflect a more gradual improvement in fundamentals and the decrease to our 2026 Core FFO estimate."

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