Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) PT Raised to $100 at BTIG

BTIG analyst Tyler DiMatteo raised the price target on Madison Square Garden Entertainment (NYSE: MSGE) to $100.00 (from $86.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst comments "MSGE reported FY4Q26 earnings yesterday with the stock up ~11% on the day as shares continue to move higher bringing YTD gains now to ~64%. The company reported a clean beat with quarterly revenue of ~$196M (consensus ~ $166M) up ~27% Y-Y and EBITDA of ~$19M (consensus ~$4M) up from -$1M in the prior year period. We expected a beat as we highlighted in our preview (see here) with reported EBITDA much higher than where we pegged the buy side bogey at $6M-$8M. FY2026 revenue and EBITDA was ~$1.06B and ~$262M (~24.7% margin up ~110 bps Y-Y), which is up ~13% and ~18% respectively. We continue to like the catalyst path for MSGE as we expect expanding concert and Christmas Spectacular show counts and pricing power leverage, given the unique events offering, to support a top line growth algorithm of 8%-10% over a multi-year period. We note MSGE is nearly 90% of the way to its bookings' goal at MSG arena for this upcoming year (FY1Q27 should be all- time record for MSG arena concerts wise) and 60% to its goal for theaters. In our view there is additional upside to shares as valuation isn't necessarily demanding at ~17x FY2027 EBITDA vs. comps 15x-25x coupled with what we expect to be an earnings beat model over the next 18 months that should support numbers moving higher the next few quarters. Key highlights: 1) MSG theater sale remains on track for sometime in the next few months with our expectation of proceeds coming in sometime by the end of CY2026 or early CY2027 given Amtrak's target of breaking ground on Penn Station redevelopment by the end of CY2027, 2) Christmas Spectacular show count remains at ~230 (up from ~228 earlier this year) but we would not be surprised if more shows were added as we move into the Fall given our expectation of strong demand (our 1P ticket pricing tracker has already seen ticket price increases of 8%-19% on average since the show was rolled out), and 3) concert bookings are pacing ahead and accelerating for FY2027 as the core business is in good shape again for another year. On theater sale proceeds, we see two paths for proceeds usage with either capital return to shareholders or reinvesting in another asset, but we would lean towards the latter given what we assume is a very low tax base for the theater."

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