JPM's Mike Feroli: Fed pausing would be the wrong signal
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From JPMorgan's morning briefing: "While we are not arguing that ECB and the Fed will give same policy approach, yesterday’s event did ease some fears of near-term GFC-like crisis. North American IG CDS declined ~6% yesterday after eased pressure on FRC and Lagarde’s speech. Better sentiment around bank turmoil supports the view that the Fed still have feasibility to use rate hikes to tame inflation; OIS-implied probabilities for a 25bp hike next meeting increased from 50% to 85%. Feroli still sees 25bp and points that a pause would send the wrong signal about seriousness of the Fed’s inflation resolve. Keep an eye on further news on regional banks, as well as price actions today and next Mon/Tues, as they may shift the narratives."
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