JPMorgan Reiterates Underweight Rating on Tesla (TSLA)

JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman reiterated an Underweight rating and $120.00 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)

The analyst comments: "We are reducing our estimates and reiterating our Underweight rating on Tesla shares after the firm on Wednesday reported 1Q deliveries far below even our low end estimate, confirming the unprecedented brand damage we had earlier feared in our March 12 report. In fact, Tesla's 1Q sales and production report causes us to think that — if anything — we may have underestimated the degree of consumer reaction, given that actual 1Q deliveries of 336,681 were -18,360 units or -5.2% below even our Street low 355,041 forecast. Relative to the Street, 1Q deliveries tracked far worse, coming in -53,662 units or -13.7% below Bloomberg consensus for 390,343 and some -40,911 units or -10.8% below the company-compiled analyst average of 377,592.

We now expect 1Q25 EPS of $0.36 vs. $0.40 prior and compared to most recent Bloomberg consensus for $0.46 (which stood at $0.70 at the time of 4Q24 earnings on January 29 and is down -83% from an all-time high of $2.75 in August 2021). Our full year 2025 EPS estimate is now $2.30 vs. $2.35 prior and compares to consensus for $2.70 (which stood at $3.25 at the time of 4Q24 earnings and is down some -83% from its all-time high of $8.41 in November 2022). Our earnings estimates are predicated in part on a lower outlook for deliveries (404K in 2Q25, down from 418K prior; 1,715K in FY25, down from 1,775K prior; and 1,975K in FY26, down from 2,025K prior). We continue to see large downside to our $120 December 2025 price target."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Tesla click here. For more ratings news on Tesla click here.

Shares of Tesla closed at $267.28 yesterday.

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