Ideaya Biosciences (IDYA) PT Raised to $57 at Guggenheim

Guggenheim analyst Paul Jeng raised the price target on Ideaya Biosciences (NASDAQ: IDYA) to $57.00 (from $54.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst commented: "Here, we provide a deep dive overview on the DLL3 landscape and preview upcoming data for IDE849 (DLL3 TOP1i ADC) in 2H26 across two studies in SCLC/NEC, including updated China Phase 1 data at ESMO and initial global Phase 1 data later in the year. Within a deep field of competing ADCs and TCEs, we continue to believe DLL3 is the optimal target for aggressive neuroendocrine neoplasms like ES-SCLC, and that IDE849 has potential to be a best-in-class agent for a large potential addressable opportunity (>$4.5Bn US TAM in treatment-naïve ES-SCLC and epNEC). We view IDYA's planned Ph 3 study in 2L+ ES-SCLC (post tarlatamab) as high PoS, although available market share as third-or fourth-to-market ADC for a late-line setting may be debated; as such, we believe frontline ES-SCLC represents the more compelling opportunity in terms of competitive positioning and potential differentiation via combinations (e.g., chemo-free PARG inhibitor combo). For the upcoming data in 2H26, we expect the ESMO presentation to include ~100 SCLC/NEC patients focusing on PFS/landmark OS and safety and the lower dose level range, while initial Phase 1 (US/global) will include ~30 mostly SCLC patients. Considering the elbow-to-elbow competition among ADCs in relapsed/ refractory ES-SCLC (e.g., DSNKY's I-DXd, ABBV's ABBV-706, ZLAB's zoci, etc.), we believe investors would like to see IDE849 maintain class-leading potency in ES-SCLC at one of the two expansion dose levels (2.4mg/kg or 3.5mg/kg) in the range of >60%-65% ORR and >6mo mPFS in the 2L+ setting, and >70% ORR and >7mo mPFS in the 2L only setting, with the majority of patients alive at the 12-month landmark and AE discontinuations remaining in the low single-digits. Heading into 2H26 IDE849 updates, we see positive risk-reward for the current IDYA market price of ~$39/share, with potential upside / downside of $48 / $30. We are also updating our model with a revised DLL3 market build of ES-SCLC and epNECs, including peak $690M US revenue on an adjusted based and $2.2Bn US revenue on an unadjusted basis, and also adjusting our MTAP-del market assumptions. Maintain BUY on IDYA as a Top Pick, and PT to $57/sh (from $54 previously)."

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