Guess? (GES) Down 12% Following Q4 EPS, Guidance; Analysts Weigh In

March 16, 2011 4:37 PM EDT
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Price: $16.81 --0%

Rating Summary:
    4 Buy, 9 Hold, 5 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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Guess? Inc. (NYSE: GES) shares are down more than 12 percent in midday trade on Thursday after the company reported in line fourth-quarter earnings yesterday after the closing bell, but guided for the current quarter well below the Street's view.

The clothing company reported fourth-quarter earnings of $1.06 per share, matching the analyst estimate.

Revenue for the company rose 18 percent to $757 million in the three month period ended January 29, topping the market consensus of $725.9 million.

Same store sales, or sales at locations open at least one year, fell 1.1 percent in the holiday quarter.

"Our focus on international expansion continues to pay off, with Europe and Asia contributing nearly two-thirds of our annual revenue increase. We leveraged the tremendous global momentum of the Guess? brand, opening 237 new stores during the year. And we strengthened our infrastructure to support our future growth around the world," Paul Marciano, Chief Executive Officer, commented.

Guess also announced that its board of directors has approved a $250 million stock buyback.

Looking forward, the company sees first-quarter earnings of 41-44 cents per share on sales of $555-$570 million, well below the Street's estimate of 61 cents and $595.63 million respectively.

For the full year 2012, Guess sees earnings of $3.30-$3.50 per share on sales of $2.72 billion-$2.82 billion, compared to the Street's estimate of $3.50 and $2.75 billion.

Shares of Guess are down 12.22 percent to $38.51 in midday market movement on Thursday.

Analyst Comments:

Brean Murray Caret & Co. reiterated a Buy rating on Guess ? with a price target of $60 on the stock. The firm says, "We continue to like GES longer term and would be buyers after the inevitable dip today as the company has continued to shift its denim demand to high performing categories like accessories and its international expansion strategy remains a higher margin material growth opportunity (especially in Europe and China)."

Wedbush maintained a Neutral rating on Guess? will lowering its price target slightly from $49 to $48. The firm says, "Though we believe GES offers attractive LT growth in Europe and Asia before considering domestic retail rollout, we believe the company could face NT headwinds from North America retail and wholesale businesses (50% of sales), both of which are planned down in Q1. In addition, the continued worldwide retail expansion, coupled with investments in China to support future growth, could exert occupancy and SG&A pressure until H2."

UPDATE: Click here to see some highlights from Guess?'s Q4 conference call.


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