Goldman Sachs Downgrades Moderna (MRNA) to Neutral

Goldman Sachs analyst Salveen Richter downgraded Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) from Buy to Neutral with a price target of $51.00 (from $99.00).

The analyst comments: "We downgrade MRNA to Neutral from Buy. We note the recent product revenue guidance represents the second in a series of negative revisions over the last six months, which while potentially at an achievable level, leads us to believe MRNA has limited visibility on the revenue stream for the respiratory vaccine business (FY25 product revenue guidance of $1.5bn-$2.5bn; GSe $1.5bn). In the context of the revenue trajectory, MRNA reiterated its cash breakeven guidance for 2028, which was previously pushed out from 2026, via FY25/FY26 expense offsets and is predicated on generating ~$6bn in revenue per the September Investor Day. Noting overall elevated operating expenses (FY25 cash cost guidance of ~$5.5bn), we assume cash breakeven occurs in 2029 and model for equity offerings in 2028/2029. We recognize that there are pipeline levers that could contribute to the top line in the medium-term (MRNA notes first regulatory filings in 2025-2027), notably the MRK-partnered individualized neoantigen therapy (INT), where we are positive on the data generated to-date albeit note a quiet catalyst path for this program in 2025. In the interim, we look to VRTX-partnered Ph1/2 cystic fibrosis (CF) data in 1H25, Ph3 cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine data in 2025, and potentially Ph3 norovirus vaccine data in 2025 pending case accrual. Net, we monitor overall strategy, cash management, and clinical and commercial execution."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Moderna click here. For more ratings news on Moderna click here.

Shares of Moderna closed at $44.94 yesterday.

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