First Watch (FWRG) PT Lowered to $15 at Stifel

Stifel analyst Chris O\'Cull lowered the price target on First Watch (NASDAQ: FWRG) to $15.00 (from $17.00) while maintaining a Hold rating.

The analyst comments "Our View: First Watch reported 4Q EPS of $0.24 (Street: $0.07), with comps up 3.1% and AEBITDA of $33.7M (Street: $34.4M). The stock’s sharp pullback following the report was largely due to the initial guidance—the midpoints of each key metric were modestly below the LT targets —and an expectation that comps will be positive every quarter despite lapping some tough comparisons (3Q25 was up 7%). We believe concerns about the unit growth rate are overblown, as new unit performance remains solid and the development and talent pipeline is robust. We believe the company could be closer to FCF positive in FY26. Underwriting positive comps every quarter in 2026 is more challenging, but expanding digital marketing to a larger portion of the system should enable the company to achieve the 1%-3% annual guidance. We will be watching how well the company manages restaurant-level costs, as comps will probably be somewhat volatile."

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