Estimates for Apple's (AAPL) Q4 Results Show Surprising Range

September 26, 2011 2:45 PM EDT
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So what is Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) going to report when it's time to disclose fourth-quarter earnings sometime in mid-October?

Over the weekend, CNN put together a bit of information from three sources: Apple itself, about 42 professional analysts, and 7 financial bloggers. Streetinsider.com did not participate in this one.

According to Apple, quarterly earnings will be about $5.50 per share with sales of $25 billion. Given recent checks on the sale of iPhones and iPads, and the fact that Apple is known to habitually give extremely conservative guidance, the likelihood of the company reporting such figures is about as likely as a stack of $100 bills landing in your lap right now...

Analysts on the Street are looking for earnings of $7.10 on revenue of $28.99 billion, about 29 percent and 16 percent above Apple's estimates, respectively. At this point we turn to Apple's Earnings History page and see that Street analysts have missed Apple earnings by an average of 24.9 percent over the last three quarters.

CNN reports submissions from seven bloggers came up with whisper earnings of $9.20 on revenue of $34.36 billion. Earnings by the bloggers are about 30 percent above the Street and 67 percent better than Apple's own estimates.

Data also shows Apple has it's strongest showings in the first and fourth quarters, though some leeway needs to be factored in.

With Apple's history, it's hard not to see earnings coming in about 30 percent over the company's own estimates. Still, could a near-70 percent beat be in the works?

Shares are down 2.2 percent Monday.


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