Eli Lilly (LLY) PT Raised to $1,163 at Guggenheim

Guggenheim analyst Seamus Fernandez raised the price target on Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) to $1,163.00 (from $1,036.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst commented: "We are updating our LLY and NOVO.B-CSE models to reflect our Rx trends and GLP-1 pricing updates/announcements (see HERE). 2026 will be the story of volume for value and delivery (oral or injectable) vs. device (vials, multi-dose pens, or auto injectors). NOVO’s Wegovy pill and LLY’s orforglipron must drive accelerated demand to justify the willingness to lower pricing not only within Medicare/Medicaid, but also in the cash pay obesity market, in our view. To date, despite price changes, NOVO’s Rx growth remains stalled, LLY’s is rapidly taking share OUS, and our model now anticipates a low single-digit impact from sema LoEs in 2026 in Canada and Brazil; further, we expect loss of Medicaid Obesity coverage in states including CA and NC to weigh further on Wegovy. For LLY, Rx trends continue ahead of expectations, where despite anticipated price changes we forecast 20% overall sales growth to $76.8B in 2026 driven primarily by the tirzepatide franchise with incremental growth coming from orfor’s launch, which we expect to accelerate LLY’s volume/share gains in 2027+. In addition, enthusiasm for the obesity pipeline, most notably long-acting amylin, eloralintide, offers another opportunity for LLY to develop a novel well-tolerated weekly mono and combination therapy asset (look for tirz + eloralintide data in 2026). We reiterate our NEUTRAL rating on NOVO and caution investors against stepping in until 2026/27 numbers have fully adjusted to the challenges facing the sema franchise AND share losses to LLY stabilize. And even though LLY has delivered another impressive year of stock performance in 2025, we simply cannot argue with the company’s superior overall execution capitalizing fully on the Pharma mega cycle of our lifetime. Reiterate BUY for LLY, with PT increased to $1,163 (from $1,036 prior)."

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