Cracker Barrel (CBRL) PT Lowered to $48 at UBS

UBS analyst Deniss Geiger lowered the price target on Cracker Barrel (NASDAQ: CBRL) to $48.00 (from $69.00) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

The analyst commented, "CBRL’s results & commentary highlighted improved F4Q restaurant sales, but with challenged F1Q traffic trends and lower than expected FY26 guidance given recent pressures related to the rebranding controversy. While F4Q traffic of down just ~1% improved from early-FY25 and remained consistent through the first half of August, trends deteriorated sharply following the initial logo change (8/19), with traffic down ~8% since. Expectations are for -7% to -8% traffic in F1Q, with traffic expected to recover through the year for a FY26 target of -4% to -7%. Additional FY26 guidance includes total revenue of $3.35-3.45BN, adj EBITDA of $150-190MM (Consensus was $238MM), and capex of $135-150MM which no longer includes remodel spend. Focus from here is on a traffic recovery trajectory through FY26, w/ support from menu innovation, marketing, CBRL's loyalty program and operational improvements. We reduce our EPS ests by 82% in FY26 & 34-38% in FY27-FY28 given the traffic challenges and lower our PT from $69 to $48. While shares are down ~25% (incl aftermarket) since 8/19 and F4Q results did highlight traction against strategic plans, current traffic challenges and an unclear go forward impact from the rebranding controversy limit visibility into a recovery trajectory. We're focused on evidence of a traffic recovery to better assess sales & earnings potential before getting more constructive on shares."

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