Bill.com (BILL) tumbles 20% on fading TPV momentum, earns 3 downgrades

Bill.com (NYSE: BILL) shares are trading sharply lower in pre-market Friday after the California-based company offered disappointing guidance for the back end of the year.

For its second quarter, Bill.com reported EPS of $0.42 on revenue of $260 million, easily ahead of the consensus for earnings of $0.14 per share on revenue of $243.75M. Revenue soared by 66% year-over-year while gross profit surged by 74%.

Among other things, BILL was dragged lower as total payment volume (TPV) came in at $63.7 billion, well below the estimate of $69.41B. On the other hand, the company also announced a $300 million share buyback plan.

For this quarter, Bill.com expects EPS in the region of $0.22-0.25 on revenue of $245-248M, which compares to the consensus for earnings of $0.12 per share on revenue of $250.8M.

As far as full-year guidance is concerned, the software company sees EPS at $1.02 (up or down $0.03) on revenue of $999M to $1.007B. Analysts were looking for an EPS of $0.55 on revenue of $999M.

Bill.com stock accelerated its downfall after at least two sell-side analysts cut their recommendation. BMO’s Daniel Jester downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform on fading TPV momentum and generally a “tough fiscal Q2.” The price target is slashed by $30 to $128 per share.

“BILL showed deceleration in the core business which was greater than we anticipated as SMBs slowed spending. While the updated guidance now bakes in incremental deceleration for the next few quarters, especially for TPV, we are concerned about the trajectory into next year where consensus growth estimates now look high. With medium-term concerns about the competitive environment percolating, we anticipate the shares could be rangebound until clarity emerges on the growth trajectory into FY24,” Jester wrote in a note.

Similarly, SMBC Nikko Securities America analyst Andrew Bauch cut BILL to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $110 per share (down from $140).

“Despite reporting a relatively sound top-line beat in F2Q, we anticipate BILL shares will be in a holding pattern for the foreseeable future as management introduced 2H FY23 guidance materially below expectations… We believe the fundamental questions raised by investors are more likely to intensify than ease in the weeks/months ahead.”

BTIG analysts also cut their recommendation on BILL stock.

By Senad Karaahmetovic

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