Apple (AAPL) Sept 10 iPhone Event: What to Expect - Jefferies
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Price: $301.63 -1.08%
Rating Summary:
44 Buy, 29 Hold, 9 Sell
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Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 12 | Down: 19 | New: 6
Rating Summary:
44 Buy, 29 Hold, 9 Sell
Rating Trend:
Down
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 12 | Down: 19 | New: 6
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Jefferies analyst Peter Misek weighed in on Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) upcoming September 10 event and separate September 11 event China and what to expect.
As is the widely held view, he sees Apple announcing two phones: iPhone 5S and iPhone 5C. He also expects an update on iOS 7 features and availability. He sees a chance we get a Macbook Pro update but sees this as less likely. He expects no other announcements and instead expect a second announcement event in late October/early November for the iPad refresh.
High probability features, according to Misek:
Sep 20 launch. China Mobile launch in CQ4. iPhone 5C: 6 colors plastic case, 4" screen. iPhone 5S: 3 colors (white, black, champagne) 4" screen, A7 processor.
Medium probability.NTT DoCoMo launch in CQ4. iPhone 5C: A6 processor, $400 price point. iPhone 5S: fingerprint sensor (50/50 probability due to low IC yields).
Low probability. iPhone 5S: NFC, >3 color.
Misek expects choppy trading in Apple shares after the launch date. "Negatives: we think sell-through will be lackluster due to the lack of differentiation, elongating replacement rates, and smartphone growth shifting to the very low-end (below the iPhone 5C price point) and to ~5" screens (Apple's product hole is highlighted by Samsung's Galaxy Note 3 announcement today with a U.S. launch in Oct). Our CQ4 EPS estimate of $11.21 is well below St's $13.49, and our iPhone revenue estimate is 20% below St (St estimates are based on CQ4 build plans of 50-60M vs. our shipment estimate of 45M). Positives: our conversations with investors indicate that buy-side consensus is not expecting Apple to achieve the sell-side CQ4 iPhone numbers. In addition to low buy-side expectations, iPhone 4S upgrades should provide a floor to CQ4 shipments (from CQ4:10 to CQ3:11 iPhone shipments averaged 18M per quarter but jumped to 37M in CQ4:11 and 35M in CQ1:12)."
The firm maintained a Hold rating and price target of $450 on Apple.
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Apple click here. For more ratings news on Apple click here.
Shares of Apple closed at $498.69 yesterday.
As is the widely held view, he sees Apple announcing two phones: iPhone 5S and iPhone 5C. He also expects an update on iOS 7 features and availability. He sees a chance we get a Macbook Pro update but sees this as less likely. He expects no other announcements and instead expect a second announcement event in late October/early November for the iPad refresh.
High probability features, according to Misek:
Sep 20 launch. China Mobile launch in CQ4. iPhone 5C: 6 colors plastic case, 4" screen. iPhone 5S: 3 colors (white, black, champagne) 4" screen, A7 processor.
Medium probability.NTT DoCoMo launch in CQ4. iPhone 5C: A6 processor, $400 price point. iPhone 5S: fingerprint sensor (50/50 probability due to low IC yields).
Low probability. iPhone 5S: NFC, >3 color.
Misek expects choppy trading in Apple shares after the launch date. "Negatives: we think sell-through will be lackluster due to the lack of differentiation, elongating replacement rates, and smartphone growth shifting to the very low-end (below the iPhone 5C price point) and to ~5" screens (Apple's product hole is highlighted by Samsung's Galaxy Note 3 announcement today with a U.S. launch in Oct). Our CQ4 EPS estimate of $11.21 is well below St's $13.49, and our iPhone revenue estimate is 20% below St (St estimates are based on CQ4 build plans of 50-60M vs. our shipment estimate of 45M). Positives: our conversations with investors indicate that buy-side consensus is not expecting Apple to achieve the sell-side CQ4 iPhone numbers. In addition to low buy-side expectations, iPhone 4S upgrades should provide a floor to CQ4 shipments (from CQ4:10 to CQ3:11 iPhone shipments averaged 18M per quarter but jumped to 37M in CQ4:11 and 35M in CQ1:12)."
The firm maintained a Hold rating and price target of $450 on Apple.
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Apple click here. For more ratings news on Apple click here.
Shares of Apple closed at $498.69 yesterday.
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