Antibodies from Moderna (MRNA) Vaccine Persisted for at Least 6 Months, Analyst Said it Could Become Preferred Vaccine in Large Markets and Reach $50B+ in Sales by 2030

April 8, 2021 7:37 AM EDT
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Fresh data from vaccine maker Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) shows that antibodies from its mRNA-1273 vaccine persisted through 6 months after the second dose, according to data published in The New England Journal of Medicine. The ongoing study is assessing immune responses beyond 6 months.

Brookline Capital Markets analyst Leah Rush Cann says that the data demonstrates “encouraging durability for protection against COVID-19,” to further support his positive outlook on the stock.

“Assays used in the analysis demonstrated higher antibody activity levels and neutralization in the younger age cohort, those 18-55, than the 56-70 and 71+ cohorts. At Day 209, the geometric mean titer (GMT) in was 92,451 in participants 18 to 55 years of age, 62,424 in those 56 to 70 years of age, and 49,373 in those 71 years of age or older. These results are consistent with published observations of convalescent patients with Covid-19 through 8 months after symptom onset,” the analyst wrote in a note sent to clients.

The vaccine has “increasingly superior attributes,” and it is likely to make the company a preferred COVID-19 vaccine in large markets.

“We continue to believe that mRNA-1273 has increasingly superior attributes, including the recent improvement in room temperature storage, the adaptability illustrated by its ability to address emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants; the quality and results of the COVE phase III data; easier handling requirements; early signs of no unanticipated adverse reactions in the real world setting; and early-mover advantages. We believe these advantages will make mRNA-1273 and its successors a preferred COVID- 19 vaccine in large markets.”

The vaccine could have 2030 sales of $51.4 billion and account for 51% of Moderna’s 2030 revenue, Rush Cann writes in a memo.

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