Align Technology (ALGN) PT Lowered to $250 at Mizuho

Mizuho analyst Steven Valiquette lowered the price target on Align Technology (NASDAQ: ALGN) to $250.00 (from $295.00) while maintaining a Outperform rating.

The analyst comments "We update our Mizuho Global Clear Aligner Market Model (Exhibits 1-2) post-results from competitor Angelalign (6699 HK/Not Covered). Angel continues to gain market share ex-China, but is still losing EBIT ex-China (-$30 mln ex-stock comp in 2024) vs. positive China EBIT (+$37 mln in 2024). Of note, 6699 HK shares are down since reporting 3/20 (-14% vs. Hang Seng -1.3% during 3/21-3/24). While our ALGN model is unchanged on back of Angel results, we take a more conservative stance on Mexico tariffs (more below). Our lower 2025E gross margin leads to EPS of $10.00 (was $10.45). We also trim our 2026 and 2027 ASP (for FX) and gross margin assumptions, which lowers 2026E EPS from $12.25 to $11.25 and 2027E from $14.20 to $12.90. With lower EPS growth, we trim our PT from $295 to $250 on lower 22x P/E (was 24x) on our lower 2026 EPS estimate."

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