Raymond James sees lead generation as likely path for AI agents

Investing.com -- Raymond James said Thursday that questions about AI agents' impact on marketplace companies have increased as Meta's Muse app reaches over 300,000 daily downloads, or more than 100 million on an annualized basis. The marketplace sector fell 9.4% since Muse's launch while the S&P gained 0.4%.

The firm maintains a positive view on marketplace stocks, having upgraded Instacart earlier this year and Airbnb earlier this month. DoorDash remains an analyst best pick.

The bear case centers on consumer AI agents acting as intermediaries that could extract marketplace economics through revenue sharing, advertising take rate compression, or reduced growth in new customer groups.

Raymond James views marketplace competitive advantages as undervalued. The firm estimates 6 billion network connections across food delivery, mobility, and travel among approximately 425 million monthly users and 11 million merchants and listings. This includes 125 million users across DoorDash, Uber Eats, and Instacart, 200 million across Uber Mobility and Lyft, and 100 million at Airbnb.

The marketplaces process about 20 billion orders, rides, and stays per year, creating data on consumer preferences, merchant characteristics, and fulfillment performance. Building and managing fulfillment infrastructure outside of large chains presents challenges.

Raymond James expects AI agents will likely adopt a lead-generation model that would complement both consumer agents through high-margin advertising revenue and marketplaces through new customers. At $150 per lead, 100 million new leads could generate $15 billion in revenue, while 500 million leads at $250 per lead could generate $125 billion.

The firm said confidence in embedded AI initiatives is improving, noting Instacart's Clementine project. Raymond James estimates the marketplace sector spends about $7 billion on general and administrative and research and development expenses in fiscal 2025.

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