Quantum computing to reach $7-10B market by 2030, says BTIG

Investing.com -- BTIG projects quantum computing's first commercial application will be quantum simulation, the same use case physicist Richard Feynman envisioned 40 years ago. The firm expects the industry to grow from approximately $1.75 billion today to $7-10 billion by 2030 and $43-71 billion by 2035.

Quantum computers are designed to model quantum systems, where classical computing becomes exponentially inefficient as particles are added and superposition and entanglement increase complexity. Current machines are already used for analog simulation in areas such as magnetism and phase transitions.

BTIG states that as the industry moves toward digital operation and quantum error correction, the technology should expand from physically simulating simpler systems to digitally modeling more complex molecules. The firm views quantum simulation as the path through which investors can track the transition from funded science to early commercial value creation.

The firm analyzed roadmaps of 10 large quantum computing companies developing their own quantum processing units across three modalities: superconducting, trapped-ion, and neutral atoms. Public roadmaps point to early fault tolerance in the 2028-2030 timeframe.

BTIG notes that Infleqtion's (NASDAQ: INFQ) expected 30 logical qubit demonstration later this year, with 100 logical qubits targeted for 2028, aligns with competitors. The firm maintains a Buy rating on Infleqtion with a $22 price target.

BTIG divides the market into three stages. Stage 1 represents today's funded science market with mostly analog systems, zero logical qubits, and revenue driven by governments, high-performance computing centers, and corporate labs.

Stage 2 is expected to begin around 2028-2030, when early fault-tolerant machines with tens to a few hundred logical qubits could start addressing 50-150 atom active-center problems in chemistry and materials.

Stage 3 represents full fault-tolerant quantum computing at 1,000-plus logical qubits, where machines become capable of addressing broader industrial problems across energy, materials, pharmaceuticals, logistics, financial services, and advanced industries.

The firm estimates the 2035 end-user value pool across major sectors at $1.3-2.7 trillion, while vendor revenue represents a portion of this opportunity. McKinsey estimates a $43-71 billion quantum computing vendor market by 2035 and $77-148 billion by 2040, while Boston Consulting Group projects a $90-170 billion hardware and software industry by 2040.

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