Jefferies Cuts Price Target onVail Resorts (MTN), Maintains Positive Thesis
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Price: $148.30 +1.98%
Rating Summary:
13 Buy, 11 Hold, 2 Sell
Rating Trend:
Up
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 13 | Down: 14 | New: 11
Rating Summary:
13 Buy, 11 Hold, 2 Sell
Rating Trend:
Up
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 13 | Down: 14 | New: 11
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Jefferies is reaffirming its Buy rating on shares of Vail Resorts (NYSE: MTN), but is reducing its price target from $63 to $52.
The firm reported its fourth quarter results inline with expectations and noted that season pass sales were up 9 percent through September 20 and volumes were up 1 percent. The company offered multiple incentive programs earlier in the year which enticed people to purchase earlier than usual.
Vail released fiscal 2012 guidance which calls for resort EBITDA of $233-$243 million and mountain EBITDA of $225-$235 million. Management also stated that is was forecasting $35-$45 million in real estate sales for the year. Jefferies believes the guidance is conservative due to concerns in the macro economy.
To go inline with market trends and the company's guidance, the firm is tweaking its fiscal 2012 and 2013 EBITDA estimates from $234.5 million and $256.5 million to $214.5 million and $235.3 million. Jefferies also cut its 2012 skier visit prediction from 3.5 percent to 1.5 percent and its ETP estimate from 1.75 percent to 1.5 percent.
Jefferies has lowered its 2012 and 2013 EPS estimates from $1.44 and $1.89 to $1.10 and $1.53.
An analyst at Jefferies comments, "We suggest that the below consensus guidance is appropriately conservative as the macro outlook remains uncertain. The release does not change our thesis on the stock, which remains a compelling cash flow story at a very reasonable valuation."
For more ratings news on Vail Resorts click here and for the rating history of Vail Resorts click here.
Shares of Vail Resorts closed at $36.75 yesterday.
The firm reported its fourth quarter results inline with expectations and noted that season pass sales were up 9 percent through September 20 and volumes were up 1 percent. The company offered multiple incentive programs earlier in the year which enticed people to purchase earlier than usual.
Vail released fiscal 2012 guidance which calls for resort EBITDA of $233-$243 million and mountain EBITDA of $225-$235 million. Management also stated that is was forecasting $35-$45 million in real estate sales for the year. Jefferies believes the guidance is conservative due to concerns in the macro economy.
To go inline with market trends and the company's guidance, the firm is tweaking its fiscal 2012 and 2013 EBITDA estimates from $234.5 million and $256.5 million to $214.5 million and $235.3 million. Jefferies also cut its 2012 skier visit prediction from 3.5 percent to 1.5 percent and its ETP estimate from 1.75 percent to 1.5 percent.
Jefferies has lowered its 2012 and 2013 EPS estimates from $1.44 and $1.89 to $1.10 and $1.53.
An analyst at Jefferies comments, "We suggest that the below consensus guidance is appropriately conservative as the macro outlook remains uncertain. The release does not change our thesis on the stock, which remains a compelling cash flow story at a very reasonable valuation."
For more ratings news on Vail Resorts click here and for the rating history of Vail Resorts click here.
Shares of Vail Resorts closed at $36.75 yesterday.
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