Ford (F), GM (GM) Lower as Firms Trim Auto Sales Expectations on Bleak Economic Outlook

August 19, 2011 8:23 AM EDT
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Tough economies lead to tougher auto sales, and the U.S. is no exception.

Quality ratings magnate J.D. Power reduced its outlook for auto sales in fiscal 2011 and 2012. The firm lowered its 2011 outlook by 300,000 units to 12.6 million and 2012 view by 600,000 cars and light trucks to 14.1 million.

Following outlooks by auto giants Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM), both of which call for at least 13 million new vehicle sales in 2011, analysts and research firms have been adjusting numbers to bring them more in line. Notably the views are well below some recent historical sales data, where light vehicle deliveries averaged 16.8 million annually from 2000 through 2007.

Firms are just not seeing a "snap back" following the March earthquake in Japan. J.D. Power is expecting a 12.1 million seasonally adjusted sales number in August, while Edmunds.com reported a rate of 12.2 million through the first two weeks of August. The firm states that a "second-half recovery is just not in the cards." As consumer confidence continues to wane, many are continuing to put off purchases of big-ticket items like autos.

Goldman Sachs yesterday lowered its fiscal 2012 light vehicle sales number to 13.5 million and sees 12.8 million deliveries in 2011. Earlier in the week, RBC cut its 2011 numbers by 200,000 to 12.5 million and 2012 numbers by 700,000 to $13.3 million. On August 11th, IHS (NYSE: IHS) reduced its 2011 outlook by 200,000 to 12.5 million and 1.2 million to 13.5 million for 2012. August 5th saw JPMorgan cut it's view by a combined 700,000 to 12.8 million in 2011 and 13.5 million in 2012.

Yesterday's Philly Fed number, showing a surprise 30.7 drop, didn't help things out much. Consumers are seeing less and less job creation, as commodity prices continue to demand more of their incomes.

Ford is trading 2 percent lower and GM 0.9 percent lower early Friday.


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