Byron Wein: Gold (GLD, GDX) Hitting $1600, S&P to Hit 1500 Among 10 Surprises for 2011

Byron Wien, Vice Chairman, Blackstone Advisory Partners, disclosed on Monday his list of The Ten Surprises for 2011, which are events that average investors would only give a one out of three chance of happening that Wein sees as probable, or better than a 50 percent chance of occurring.

• Wein sees real Gross Domestic Product rising close to 5 percent on improved trade and capital spending, coupled with a strong retail sales. Wein also sees unemployment dropping below 9 percent.
• Foreign investors will demand more, pushing the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury to near 5 percent.
• The Standard & Poor's 500 will rise to close the year at its old high of 1500, on improved earnings and increased M&A activity.
• Gold will rise above $1,600, despite tempered inflation.
• Measures taken by the Chinese government will allow the country to keep the growth of the economy below 10 percent and prevent consumer prices from increasing above the 4percent to 5 percent.
• The price of corn will rise to $8, wheat to $10 and soybeans to $16 as the standard of living in emerging markets rises.
• The Case-Shiller gradually home prices index heads higher and housing starts exceed 600,000, as the housing market improves.
• Demand from emerging markets and the failure to bring onstream new supply will cause the price of oil to jump above $115 per barrel.
• President Barack Obama will accelerate the withdrawal of military personnel to the the end of 2011 from Afghanistan. Obama will conclude that when the U.S. exits the country, it will return to a tribal state ruled by warlords.
• The European financial crisis becomes less of a concern as Angela Merkel leads the way for financial reform.

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