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A "BIG" Sell-Off in Big Lots (BIG), But Analysts Call Q3 Unimportant and Transitional

December 2, 2011 11:55 AM EST
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Price: $3.47 --0%

Rating Summary:
    9 Buy, 14 Hold, 7 Sell

Rating Trend: Up Up

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 11 | Down: 14 | New: 3
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Shares of Big Lots (NYSE: BIG) are trading down over 10 percent following the release of its third quarter results. Some analysts and investors may find the stock reaction surprising since the quarter only accounted for 8 percent of total earnings in 2010.

An analyst at Barclays, who currently has an Overweight rating and $38 price target on the stock, notes that the fourth quarter, which made up 52 percent of total earnings in 2010, is substantially more important to the company’s outlook and how the company should be valued.

Management's fourth quarter guidance calls for income from continuing operations of $1.59 to $1.66 per diluted share, well above the $1.46 during the fourth quarter of 2010 and inline with the Street's consensus of $1.63. Same store sales growth for the fourth quarter is expected to increase 1-2 percent in the company's U.S. segment.

Although fourth quarter gross margins are expected to show a decline year over year, it is notable that the loss will be lower than the loss during the third quarter.

Excluding the impact of the company's new Canadian operations, income from continuing operations was $11.4 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, for the third quarter of fiscal 2011 and well above the Street’s consensus of $0.09.

Analysts also highlight that the third quarter was a transactional and investors should look to management's future guidance for expectations. Big Lots increased its full year 2011 earnings guidance from $2.80 to $2.90 per share to $2.85 to $2.92 per share.

KeyBanc, who began covering the stock in early November with a Hold rating, reports there is no real major catalysts in the near term, but once Canadian operations become accretive in 2012 and 2013 earnings growth will be much healthier.

Today, two financial firms raised their price targets on shares of BIG; Sidoti raised its price target to $40 with a Hold rating while BB&T Capital management raised its price target to $41 with a Buy rating. Other firms such as Deutsche, who has a Buy rating and $45 price target on the stock, and Wedbush, who has a Outperform rating and $47 price target on the stock, remain bullish. Benchmark also reaffirmed its Buy rating and $45 price target on the stock on November 30th.

Shares of BIG have a 52-week range of $27.82-$44.44 and opened at $36.75 today. Big Lots shares are up almost 19 percent year to date versus the S&P 500 which is down 0.2 percent year to date.


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