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Netflix (NFLX) Losses Another Bull

February 15, 2011 12:14 PM EST
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Price: $564.80 +1.74%

Rating Summary:
    43 Buy, 27 Hold, 4 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 11 | Down: 12 | New: 13
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Shares of Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) are lower today after a noted analyst downgraded the stock today.

Morgan Stanley's Scott Devitt, who caught 150% upside in the high-flying stock since upgrading shares in July 2010, downgrades shares today from Overweight to Equal Weight.

The downgrade from Devitt was based solely on valuation, with shares exceeding their $245 price target and appreciating 550% in the last two years. Devitt claims "Netflix shares now discount 57MM global subs by 2015."

Devitt acknowledges that his thesis could prove wrong if Netflix's international expansion is bigger than expected, although their model already accounts for 15.6 million international subscribers in 2015.

The firm left their estiamtes unchanged, which calls for revenue of $3.2 billion in 2011 and $4 billion in 2012 and EPS of $4.54 and $5.48, respectively.

Devitt says under a Bull Case the stock cold be worth $265 per share. Under the bull scenario the company can post Accelerated share gains, margin expansion and keep digital competitors at bay. A base case is $245 and a Bear case is $150.

Shares of Netflix are down 3.3 percent today.


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