Lazard Capital Evaluates Early-December Mall Traffic (GPS, ANF, M, JWN, more)

Lazard Capital Markets recently opined on upcoming mall traffic for the 2009 holiday season, and they see a slow start for many big-name retailers. Lazard says that traffic should remain relatively flat this year, after two consecutive drops in traffic (down 13% in 2008 and 7% in 2007). The shift in focus should be on the week post-Christmas, not the first week of December, as that is trending to be a slower week,

Lazard observed that, although colder temperatures drive people to buy, sleet and snow do the opposite. A drop in temps, coupled with icy rain and snow, in the Northwest and Southeast, has ebbed many consumers from venturing out.

UGG boots were sold out at Macy's (NYSE: M) Bloomingdale's and inventories low at Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) and Journey's.

Lazard also noted that Aeropostle (NYSE: ARO) shifted their sale from 50 - 70% off, to a simplistic $10, $15, or $20 off. The firm notes that if the pricing reverts, then the strategy didn't work.

American Eagle (NYSE: AEO) ran a "buy one get one 50% off all sweaters and hoodies" sale, which was the same as last year.

Abercrombie and Fitch (NYSE: ANF) was handing out $25 gift cards with a $100 purchase. Lazard notes that this did little to stimulate traffic.

Another note is that young adults and teens appear to be trending toward "non-logo" apparel.

Gap (NYSE: GPS) pulled out a more aggressive "buy-one-top-get-one-free all tops" promotion, which trumps the "25% off cable sweaters and select categories" promotion ran last year.

Banana Republic got more specific, with "25% off most categories" and selected deals on Saturday and Sunday.

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