Cantor Sees Limited Impact on Hologic's (HOLX) ThinPrep Vols Following FDA Panel; Updates on Management Meeting

Cantor Fitzgerald maintains its Hold rating and $21 target price on Hologic (Nasdaq: HOLX) following a recent meeting with management.

Analyst Jeremy Feffer noted the following key takeaways:

1. there will likely be limited near-term impact on U.S. ThinPrep volumes from the recent FDA panel recommendation of Roche's HPV test as a primary screen;
   
   
2. Hologic is unfazed by ongoing debate over the use of mammography and thinks guideline changes are unlikely; and
   
   
3. despite macrorelated pressures, Hologic is not interested in divesting the blood screening business.

On HPV, Feffer noted, Given its dominant presence in the cytology-based cervical cancer screening market (alongside BDX), Hologic appears unconcerned by the recent FDA advisory committee recommendation of Roche's (OTCBB: RHHBY) cobas HPV test as a primary screening tool. Hologic maintains that because guidelines still generally call for Pap/HPV co-testing, a Roche approval for primary testing likely would not have a material impact on pap volumes in the near term.

Breast Health: Despite the recent BMJ study questioning the use of mammography as a screening tool, management thinks it is unlikely that practices guidelines will change to less frequent screening. If that does happen, however, Hologic believes that having a superior technology (like 3d tomo) will become even more imperative for hospitals and radiology practices to further reduce the risk of missed cancers. Regarding reimbursement, the company has no formal expectation of what the dollar amount would be (assuming the codes are published per the CPT Panel's recommendation), but noted that some doctors billing under miscellaneous codes have been able to get an incremental $30-60.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Hologic click here. For more ratings news on Hologic click here.

Hologic closed at $21.33 yesterday.

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