Leerink Swann Upgrades Eli Lilly (LLY) to Outperform Following Solid Ramucirumab New
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Price: $1,180.16 -2.25%
Rating Summary:
30 Buy, 5 Hold, 3 Sell
Rating Trend: = Flat
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 13 | Down: 14 | New: 11
Rating Summary:
30 Buy, 5 Hold, 3 Sell
Rating Trend: = Flat
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 13 | Down: 14 | New: 11
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Leerink Swann upgraded Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) from Market Perform to Outperform and raised its price target from $52 to $59-$60 following positive Ramucirumab data.
The firm comments: "We're upgrading LLY from Market Perform to Outperform based on today's news of ramucirumab showing single-agent activity as well as a very solid safety profile in second-line gastric cancer vs. best-supportive care," the analyst said. "Given the lack of available treatment options, we believe that our $600M forecast for amucirumab is eminently achievable based solely on the prospect of approval in second-line gastric cancer alone. All 5 other potential indications for ramucirumab would represent upside to our forecasts. Our risk-adjusted sales prospects for ramucirumab across all indications increases by $1B from $600M to $1.6B in 2020, which assumes an 80% probability of approval in second-line gastric cancer ($600M * 0.8 = $480M), a 65% probability of success across ramucirumab's remaining indications excluding breast cancer (Avastin = $5.7B in 2011; we now assume 50% probability of achieving 1/3 of Avastin's sales in the various indications = $1B), and a 5-10% probability of success in breast cancer ($1-2B indication = $100M). These results also support, to some degree, the ImClone acquisition."
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Eli Lilly click here. For more ratings news on Eli Lilly click here.
Shares of Eli Lilly closed at $50.45 yesterday.
The firm comments: "We're upgrading LLY from Market Perform to Outperform based on today's news of ramucirumab showing single-agent activity as well as a very solid safety profile in second-line gastric cancer vs. best-supportive care," the analyst said. "Given the lack of available treatment options, we believe that our $600M forecast for amucirumab is eminently achievable based solely on the prospect of approval in second-line gastric cancer alone. All 5 other potential indications for ramucirumab would represent upside to our forecasts. Our risk-adjusted sales prospects for ramucirumab across all indications increases by $1B from $600M to $1.6B in 2020, which assumes an 80% probability of approval in second-line gastric cancer ($600M * 0.8 = $480M), a 65% probability of success across ramucirumab's remaining indications excluding breast cancer (Avastin = $5.7B in 2011; we now assume 50% probability of achieving 1/3 of Avastin's sales in the various indications = $1B), and a 5-10% probability of success in breast cancer ($1-2B indication = $100M). These results also support, to some degree, the ImClone acquisition."
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Eli Lilly click here. For more ratings news on Eli Lilly click here.
Shares of Eli Lilly closed at $50.45 yesterday.
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