OPINION: What is Happening to the World? Were the Mayans Right? (BUD) (HRL)

September 26, 2012 8:47 AM EDT
To start, this isn't a negative political piece. It's much more important than that.

Let's say you're human and you "enjoy relaxing," are a fan of "good times," and "aren't vegetarian." If you've answered yes to one or more of those, than the following information might not be news to you. All we can say is that those crazy Mayans might be on to something.

First, markets are at all time highs, evoking the question of whether or not it makes sense to stay in or lock-up profits. We can't answer that for you.

Second, news out of the Financial Times today has the price of malting barley increasing at a good click, due to lack of supply from dry weather this year. What that means is the price of beer, one of the world's key commodities, is going to go up. The FT cites Oktoberfest in Munich as an example, saying that average beer prices at the festival will be €9.40 per liter (about $5.72 per pint), up 4 percent from last year and 43 percent over the last decade.

RMI Analytics has said that malting barley prices have risen 25 percent since the start of June. Since the start of June! Though it might seem extreme, you can bet that names like Anheuser-InBev (NYSE: BUD), SABMiller, Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP), and Heineken N.V. (OTCBB: HINKY) have been buying futures and forwards as a hedge against the prices.

The fun doesn't stop there; some estimate that farmers in the U.S. might shift from malting barely to feed barley, which costs less to cultivate. That means prices might rise again in 2013.

Finally, as noted earlier this week, some experts see a bacon shortage as being "unavoidable." News comes from the U.K.'s National Pig Association (here's how to join).

The pork shortage, like rising beer prices, will be tied to the drought that ravaged America's heartland this year. The NPA said the number of slaughtered pigs could drop by 10 percent in the second-half of 2012, potentially causing pork product prices to rise by a similar amount. Investors will be eying the likes of Hormel (NYSE: HRL), Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD), Zhongpin (Nasdaq: HOGS), and others on word of price hikes.

So, no bacon and pricier beer. At least there's still high-quality, well-run American football. Wait...what?

Come on!


Serious News for Serious Traders! Try StreetInsider.com Premium Free!

You May Also Be Interested In





Related Categories

Insiders' Blog

Related Entities

Raising Prices