The Apple (AAPL) iPhone 5 Will Be a Boon for These Stocks...

August 15, 2012 12:41 PM EDT
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Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone 5 is expected sometime in September and all signs point to it being the biggest product cycle in history. Not only is the new phone important for Apple, it is also critical for the entire Apple ecosystem - from chip companies to mobile carriers. FBR analyst Craig Berger did an in-depth report on the implication for the technology supply chain related to the new device.

For Apple, the new phone could drive more than $50/share in earnings and as much as 250M units "representing one of the largest single product opportunities in Apple's history."

For semiconductor makers this means 50M–52 million units could get built in 4Q12, Berger notes, which is well ahead of Street estimates. Winners could include QUALCOMM (Nasdaq: QCOM), Fairchild Semiconductor (NYSE: FCS) and NXP Semiconductors NV (Nasdaq: NXPI).

"QUALCOMM could see its baseband content grow from about $8 in the iPhone 4S
to $15−$18 in the iPhone 5 as Apple upgrades to a 4G LTE slim baseband modem," Berger comments. "This could drive 19% of annual QCT sales and $0.25 of EPS (exc royalties and iPads)."

On Fairchild Semi, the analyst said could enjoy "increasing analog and FET content in the handset and growing AC/DC content in the device charger, a plus as Apple ramps toward 10% of revenues in 2013."

Wolfson Micro could be exposed from a new 19-pin connector dock and NXP Semi if Apple chose to include NFC functionality.

Device content "maintainers" likely include many of the firms supplying into the iPhone 4S including Broadcom (Nasdaq: BRCM), Avago (Nasdaq: AVGO), Skyworks (Nasdaq: SWKS), Triquint (Nasdaq: TQNT), Cirrus (Nasdaq: CRUS), TI (NYSE: TXN), ON Semi (Nasdaq: ONNN), and others, Berger notes.

Commenting on the carriers, Berger expects "(1) a modest flow share advantage at VZ relative to T and S driven by better coverage, (2) T to maintain greater-than-expected upgrade eligibility discipline, and (3) S to benefit from flow share from T-Mobile USA and Apple’s efforts to improve competitive positioning relative to Samsung ahead of a potential S/T Mobile merger."


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