Jefferies Maintains a 'Hold' on LHC Group (LHCG); See $22 As Maximum Takeout

March 14, 2012 7:26 AM EDT
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Price: $169.81 --0%

Rating Summary:
    5 Buy, 15 Hold, 0 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 13 | Down: 14 | New: 11
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Jefferies maintains a 'Hold' on LHC Group (NASDAQ: LHCG) price target raised from $15 to $20.

Analyst, Arthur I. Henderson, said, "While we are encouraged by LHC's success in stabilizing its operations and cost structure, we believe these trends are adequately baked into the stock and mgmt's guidance. And with LHCG "reviewing strategic options", the stock will trade NT primarily on the prospects of a takeout. However, applying a realistic buyout multiple suggests modest upside from current levels." (Raising FY12 EPS estimate from $1.45 to $1.54 and FY13 from $1.36 to $1.45)

"We believe that a takeout will value LHC at a maximum of $22: While acquisition multiples in the home nursing sector have gone as high as 11x EV/EBITDA (TLC in 2008), we doubt that LHCG can command that multiple today given the current reimbursement and regulatory environment, as well as recent volume challenges faced by the home nursing sector. A look at the small subset of relatively sizable home nursing deals (5-year look-back) suggests that those acquisitions were typically valued ~1.0x-3.0x above public multiples."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on LHC Group click here. For more ratings news on LHC Group click here.

Shares of LHC Group closed at $18.36 yesterday.


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