Nomura Securities Maintains a 'Buy' on Marriott (MAR); IMFs Peel $0.03 From 2012 EPS
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Price: $356.72 +1.19%
Rating Summary:
19 Buy, 18 Hold, 2 Sell
Rating Trend:
Up
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 13 | Down: 14 | New: 11
Rating Summary:
19 Buy, 18 Hold, 2 Sell
Rating Trend:
Up
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 13 | Down: 14 | New: 11
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Nomura Securities maintains a 'Buy' on Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) price target of $43.00.
Analyst, Harry C. Curtis, said, "Incentive management fees (IMFs) are returning slower than expected, yet we think MAR should still pass peak EPS (2007) this year. 2. IMF growth is being held back by lower fee increases in the D.C. metro area, New York City and the Middle East, 15% of total IMFs. In addition, hotel owners indicate that capital improvements made over the past several years have increased hurdle rates. Currently, 29% of hotels are paying IMFs. As ADR and margins expand over the next three years, IMFs should climb to $318m in 2014 versus $369m at the 2007 peak."
"We are lowering our EBITDA and EPS estimates, reflecting slower growth in IMFs and slightly lower owned/leased hotel margin. We are lowering our 2012 EPS estimate to $1.70 from $1.73, but our 2013 EPS estimate increases to $2.20 from $2.16, due to the benefit of two years ($1.6b) of share repurchases. For 1Q, we expect EPS of $0.30, driven by RevPAR of 5%. Our 2012 RevPAR of 6.6% reflects progressively better pricing and easier international comps (Middle East and Japan) throughout the year."
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Marriott International click here. For more ratings news on Marriott International click here.
Shares of Marriott International closed at $34.82 yesterday.
Analyst, Harry C. Curtis, said, "Incentive management fees (IMFs) are returning slower than expected, yet we think MAR should still pass peak EPS (2007) this year. 2. IMF growth is being held back by lower fee increases in the D.C. metro area, New York City and the Middle East, 15% of total IMFs. In addition, hotel owners indicate that capital improvements made over the past several years have increased hurdle rates. Currently, 29% of hotels are paying IMFs. As ADR and margins expand over the next three years, IMFs should climb to $318m in 2014 versus $369m at the 2007 peak."
"We are lowering our EBITDA and EPS estimates, reflecting slower growth in IMFs and slightly lower owned/leased hotel margin. We are lowering our 2012 EPS estimate to $1.70 from $1.73, but our 2013 EPS estimate increases to $2.20 from $2.16, due to the benefit of two years ($1.6b) of share repurchases. For 1Q, we expect EPS of $0.30, driven by RevPAR of 5%. Our 2012 RevPAR of 6.6% reflects progressively better pricing and easier international comps (Middle East and Japan) throughout the year."
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Marriott International click here. For more ratings news on Marriott International click here.
Shares of Marriott International closed at $34.82 yesterday.
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