BP (BP) Offers Energy Outlook Through 2030, Notes Increased Demand for Renewables
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In the company's annual outlook report, BP (NYSE: BP) predicted renewable energy consumption will grow by 8.2 percent annually through 2030 while the fastest growing fossil fuel, natural gas, is only expected to grow by 2.1 percent.
The company projects world primary energy consumption will grow by 1.6 percent annually between 2010 to 2030; "adding 39 percen to global consumption by 2030.". BP comments, “Renewables, nuclear and hydroelectric should account for more than half the growth in power generation.” Oil is forecast to be the slowest-growing fuel over the next 20 years. BP sees oil growing by 16 Mb/d, exceeding 103 Mb/d by 2030.
The growing demand for renewable energy is evident as investments toward renewable energy rose 7 percent year over year to $260 billion in 2011. Bloomberg notes 2011 was the first year “fresh money” invested in wind and solar at a quicker pace than new oil, coal and gas fired output. BP said, “The growing role of non-fossil fuels becomes even clearer in the following decade to 2030, with 75% of the growth coming from these sources and very little from coal. Meanwhile the contribution of gas remains relatively steady at around 31% through the decades.”
BP still predicts coal will be the largest contributor to the growth of power fuels over the next decade, but will steadily decline following 2020. The company states, “Fossil fuels are converging on a market share of 26-28% each and non-fossil fuel groups on a market share of 6-7% each.”
The company projects world primary energy consumption will grow by 1.6 percent annually between 2010 to 2030; "adding 39 percen to global consumption by 2030.". BP comments, “Renewables, nuclear and hydroelectric should account for more than half the growth in power generation.” Oil is forecast to be the slowest-growing fuel over the next 20 years. BP sees oil growing by 16 Mb/d, exceeding 103 Mb/d by 2030.
The growing demand for renewable energy is evident as investments toward renewable energy rose 7 percent year over year to $260 billion in 2011. Bloomberg notes 2011 was the first year “fresh money” invested in wind and solar at a quicker pace than new oil, coal and gas fired output. BP said, “The growing role of non-fossil fuels becomes even clearer in the following decade to 2030, with 75% of the growth coming from these sources and very little from coal. Meanwhile the contribution of gas remains relatively steady at around 31% through the decades.”
BP still predicts coal will be the largest contributor to the growth of power fuels over the next decade, but will steadily decline following 2020. The company states, “Fossil fuels are converging on a market share of 26-28% each and non-fossil fuel groups on a market share of 6-7% each.”
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