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Deutsche Bank Cuts Price Target on Alcoa (AA) Ahead of Earnings, Comments on Capacity Cuts

January 6, 2012 9:57 AM EST
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Price: $49.98 +0.79%

Rating Summary:
    20 Buy, 13 Hold, 1 Sell

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    Up: 13 | Down: 14 | New: 11
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Deutsche Bank is maintaining its Hold rating on shares of Alcoa (NYSE: AA) and is reducing its price target from $12 to $10 ahead of the company's fourth quarter earnings release.

AA will announces its Q4 results on January 9 after the market closes. The company also has a conference call scheduled for the same day at 5:00pm EST; dial-in: (800) 299-7635, id# 36291193.

The firm is estimating EPS of $0.01 and EBITDA of $545 million as it forecasts Primary metals and alumina sales volumes will remain unchanged at 754,000 tons and 2.3 million tons. FY11 EPS is estimated to be $0.72.

AA announced plans to close or curtail around 12 percent of its global smelting capacity. An analyst at Deutsche comments, "Cuts include 7 percentage points of permanent closures of an already idled plant in Alcoa, Tennessee and 2 of the 6 idled pot lines at its Rockdale, Texas smelter, together totaling 291k tons. Pending curtailments will temporarily idle 240k tons, or a further 5pp of capacity. Alumina production will be reduced on matching basis. Restructuring charges for 4Q11 are expected at ~$160m after-tax, or ~$0.16/share."

For FY12, the firm is forecasting EPS of $0.62 with a loss of $0.08 per share for the first quarter.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Alcoa click here. For more ratings news on Alcoa click here.

Shares of Alcoa closed at $9.36 yesterday.


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