Q4 Preview: Disney (DIS) Looks for Win as Macro Event, Commodity Costs Weigh
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Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) is comfortably in positive territory Thursday afternoon, heading into its fourth-quarter earnings report, which is expected out after the market closes.
Click here to access the webcast, which should start at about 4:15pm EST.
Disney is expected to report earnings of 54 cents per share on revenue of $10.36 billion. The number would be weaker than 78 cents reported last quarter, but about 20 percent better than 45 cents reported in the same period last year.
Shares dropped 23 percent through the quarter, to $30.16 at the end of September. Disney stock is up 14.3 percent since the end of the quarter, but down 8.1 percent since the start of 2011.
Last quarter, Disney reported a book value of $21.40 and cash of $1.90 per share. Excluding cash, Disney is going for about 11.3 times next years earnings, compared with 7.2 times for News Corp (Nasdaq: NWSA) and 9.7 times for Time Warner (NYSE: TWX).
Data from Bloomberg has 18 analysts with a Buy rating, 15 at Hold, and none suggesting to Sell. The consensus price target for Disney is $41, with a low of $31 and high of $50. Disney has traded within a range of $28.19 to $44.34 over the last 52-week time frame.
Analyst Comments
Click here to access the webcast, which should start at about 4:15pm EST.
Disney is expected to report earnings of 54 cents per share on revenue of $10.36 billion. The number would be weaker than 78 cents reported last quarter, but about 20 percent better than 45 cents reported in the same period last year.
Shares dropped 23 percent through the quarter, to $30.16 at the end of September. Disney stock is up 14.3 percent since the end of the quarter, but down 8.1 percent since the start of 2011.
Last quarter, Disney reported a book value of $21.40 and cash of $1.90 per share. Excluding cash, Disney is going for about 11.3 times next years earnings, compared with 7.2 times for News Corp (Nasdaq: NWSA) and 9.7 times for Time Warner (NYSE: TWX).
Data from Bloomberg has 18 analysts with a Buy rating, 15 at Hold, and none suggesting to Sell. The consensus price target for Disney is $41, with a low of $31 and high of $50. Disney has traded within a range of $28.19 to $44.34 over the last 52-week time frame.
Analyst Comments
- Goldman Sachs is looking for revenue of $10.485 billion and earnings of 54 cents per share. Goldman is a little hesitant heading into results, saying its keeping an eye on the economy and how that will affect ad and consumer spending. The firm also believes that Disney has some company-specific headwinds to contend with, notably in revenue and margin at theme parks and cable networks.
Goldman commented, "(1) Park revenue growth slowing: With park pricing now normalized, we expect park revenue growth to slow and the ongoing weakness in US employment could cause further softness in park demand and possibly more discounting. Added costs for new projects (e.g., Shanghai Disney, California Adventure) should continue to restrain Park margins versus those implied by prior cycles and top line growth. (2) Tough ad comps in cable: Even before any macro advertising weakness, Disney’s cable networks face difficult advertising comps– particularly in fiscal 1H2012–and rising costs for new and returning sports contracts, restraining OI growth and margins. Key risks include ESPN pricing power and distribution."
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