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Baird Maintains an 'Outperform' on Amgen (AMGN); New ESA Label More Impactful than We'd Thought - Lowering EPO, Again

October 11, 2011 7:19 AM EDT
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Price: $415.21 -0.63%

Rating Summary:
    20 Buy, 18 Hold, 5 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 13 | Down: 14 | New: 11
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Baird maintains an 'Outperform' on Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN).

Baird analyst says, "Remain AMGN buyers despite feedback from our latest nephrologist survey (fielded September, following FDA's ESA label change) which indicates another round of EPO estimate-lowering is in order, as utilization has taken a major step back across the board. However, we believe this feedback remains within management's articulated range for EPO utilization down 20-25% Y-Y. While we are lowering our EPO numbers, we continue to want to own AMGN for Xgeva launch upside and continued robust cash flow generation."

"Lowering our EPO estimates again, this time more measurably hoping it will be the last time. We now model Q311, Q411 and FY12 Epogen revenue of $500M, $469M and $1.81B, respectively (from $525M, $520M and $1.95B)."

For more ratings news on Amgen click here and for the rating history of Amgen click here.

Shares of Amgen closed at $57.37 yesterday.


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Robert W Baird