Barclays on U.S. Autos & Auto Parts: September Preview: Slow Expansion, Not Limited to Japanese OEMs
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Rating Summary:
7 Buy, 5 Hold, 2 Sell
Rating Trend:
Up
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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Barclays on U.S. Autos & Auto Parts: September Preview: Slow expansion, not limited to Japanese OEMs
Barclays analyst, Brian A. Johnson, says, "September sales appear to have increased sequentially, even as the market continues to price in a double dip. While the stock market appears to, after this week's fall, to price in about a 50% probability of a double dip, nevertheless sales for September appear to be tracking to a 12.8mn SAAR (versus last month at 12.1 mn SAAR), consistent with (or even somewhat better than) a stall scenario, with retail sales likely in the 10.2mn SAAR range. This represents an improvement of 6.7% year over year in unit sales and (given new SAAR factors) an 8.2% increase in SAAR from September 2010 (which had an 11.8mn SAAR). This provides some encouragement, although the improvement may only somewhat dispel fears of a deeper fall later in the year, and hence auto stocks are likely to remain a macro trade."
"Honda (NYSE: HMC) beginning to move beyond inventory issues while Big Three solid. Honda, who we estimate gained 120bp of market share, appears to be moving beyond its inventory issues, while Toyota (NYSE: TM), which is still constrained, also appears to be bottoming out, helping to lift overall SAAR. At the same time, the Big Three appear to have had a decent retail month, with overall sales up 15% from September 2010."
Other stocks of note include: GM (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F), Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI), Lear (NYSE: LEA), Nissan (Nasdaq: NSANY), Daimler (NYSE: DAI), Meritor (NYSE: MTOR), Dana (NYSE: DAN), American Axle (NYSE: AXL), and Honeywell (NYSE: HON)
Barclays analyst, Brian A. Johnson, says, "September sales appear to have increased sequentially, even as the market continues to price in a double dip. While the stock market appears to, after this week's fall, to price in about a 50% probability of a double dip, nevertheless sales for September appear to be tracking to a 12.8mn SAAR (versus last month at 12.1 mn SAAR), consistent with (or even somewhat better than) a stall scenario, with retail sales likely in the 10.2mn SAAR range. This represents an improvement of 6.7% year over year in unit sales and (given new SAAR factors) an 8.2% increase in SAAR from September 2010 (which had an 11.8mn SAAR). This provides some encouragement, although the improvement may only somewhat dispel fears of a deeper fall later in the year, and hence auto stocks are likely to remain a macro trade."
"Honda (NYSE: HMC) beginning to move beyond inventory issues while Big Three solid. Honda, who we estimate gained 120bp of market share, appears to be moving beyond its inventory issues, while Toyota (NYSE: TM), which is still constrained, also appears to be bottoming out, helping to lift overall SAAR. At the same time, the Big Three appear to have had a decent retail month, with overall sales up 15% from September 2010."
Other stocks of note include: GM (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F), Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI), Lear (NYSE: LEA), Nissan (Nasdaq: NSANY), Daimler (NYSE: DAI), Meritor (NYSE: MTOR), Dana (NYSE: DAN), American Axle (NYSE: AXL), and Honeywell (NYSE: HON)
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