IATA Increases Net Profit Outlook for Airlines in FY11, Slashes Cargo Expectations

September 20, 2011 7:59 AM EDT
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Expectations for airlines have been raised Tuesday.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) increased its net profit outlook for airlines in 2011 by about 72.5 percent, from $4 billion to $6.9 billion. IATA cites increasing passenger demand on the raised outlook.

The number is still about 57 percent lower than $16 billion of net profits realized in 2010. Revenue expectations increased slightly as well, up about 1.5 percent to $464 billion.

IATA's passenger growth outlook has been raised as well, from 4.4 percent in June to 5.9 percent -- about 2.8 billion passengers -- as of this latest report.

Breaking the outlook down by region, the IATA sees North American companies profiting $1.5 billion, European carriers netting $1.4 billion, and Asian airlines recording $2.5 billion in net profit.

Despite the profit growth, IATA slashed it's cargo growth forecast from 5.5 percent to 1.4 percent, saying air freight has stagnated since the start of the year.

From the IATA: "Airlines are going to make a little more money in 2011 than we thought. That is good news. Given the strong headwinds of high oil prices and economic uncertainty, remaining in the black is a great achievement,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO. “But we should keep the improvement in perspective. The $2.9 billion bottom line improvement is equal to about a half a percent of revenue. And the margin is a paltry 1.2 percent. Airlines are competing in a very tough environment. And 2012 will be even more difficult."

Amid the good news for 2011, IATA has more caution heading into 2012. The association sees profits falling to $4.9 billion next year, on revenue of $632 billion. Passenger growth is expected to be 4.6 percent with cargo volumes down 4.2 percent.

On the report this morning, airlines are looking slightly stronger. Key stocks to watch include:
  • United Continental (NYSE: UAL);

  • American Airlines (NYSE: AMR);

  • Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV);

  • Delta (NYSE: DAL); and

  • JetBlue (Nasdaq: JBLU).


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