Q2 Preview: Sun May Not Shine on First Solar (FSLR) in Q2, But Outlook Brighter

August 4, 2011 3:50 PM EDT
Get Alerts FSLR Hot Sheet
Price: $214.28 +0.10%

Rating Summary:
    37 Buy, 18 Hold, 4 Sell

Rating Trend: Up Up

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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Solar module maker First Solar, Inc. (NYSE: FSLR) is markedly lower this afternoon, heading into the company's second-quarter earnings report.

After the market closes today, First Solar should report earnings of 92 cents on revenue of $583.42 million. Earnings would be a 31 drop-off sequentially, and 50 percent decline from the same period last year.

First Solar fell 17.8 percent in the quarter, to $132.27 at the end of June. Shares are off 18.6 since then, and are down 17.3 percent on the year.

Data from Bloomberg has 23 analysts with a Buy rating on First Solar, 16 at Hold, and five suggesting to Sell. The analyst price target average is $153, with a low of $85 and high of $200. Shares have traded in a range of $107.50 to $175.45 over the last 52 weeks.

Analyst Commentary
Goldman Sachs is modeling for earnings of 85 cents per share on revenue of $610 million. Commenting into the quarter, Goldman says, "we see downside risk to consensus 2Q results owing to lower-than-expected 3rd party ASPs. This effect is accentuated by what we expect to be a relatively insignificant quarter for First Solar’s systems business, with revenue recognition for the Agua Caliente project likely pushed into 3Q. First Solar’s framework agreements may cause a lag in realized ASPs vs. changes in spot prices, but we still expect 3rd party ASPs to have moved meaningfully lower in 2Q." Goldman maintained its Buy rating on the stock.

Kaufman Bros. sees earnings of 95 cents per share on revenue of $608 million. Kaufman says the primary growth driver will be EPC revs. Kaufman also sees 1.566-GW of shipments in fiscal 2011. Commenting, "this should be the most challenging quarter for solar companies as a result of weaker industry pricing and volumes which should impact near-term profits. However, we continue to view FSLR as the premier stock in the space as it continues to maintain the lowest cost in the industry...[First Solar] is aggressively expanding into new markets including India, China and Australia. This, coupled with a 2.4 GW North American pipeline, provides increased insurance that the company will be able to place all of its modules. Additionally, FSLR recently entered the small commercial market of 10 kw-30 kw and competing directly with the traditional solar module manufacturers."

Collins Stewart is looking for earnings of 95 cents per share on revenue of $588 million.

Stay tuned to StreetInsider.com's EPS Insider section to see our analysis of the highly-anticipated quarterly results within seconds of their release.


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