Ticonderoga Maintains a 'Neutral' on Toll Bros. (TOL); Qtrly Preview – Expect Positive Orders Surprise, But Not Positive Cost Surprises
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Price: $148.27 -0.7%
Rating Summary:
22 Buy, 11 Hold, 2 Sell
Rating Trend:
Up
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 13 | Down: 14 | New: 11
Rating Summary:
22 Buy, 11 Hold, 2 Sell
Rating Trend:
Up
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 13 | Down: 14 | New: 11
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Ticonderoga maintains a 'Neutral' on Toll Bros. (NYSE: TOL).
Ticonderoga analyst says, "We expect TOL will earn $0.02 per share before charges, while consensus falls below us, likely due to embedded charges. We believe TOL continues to hover around breakeven due to the elevated SG&A combined with what we believe will be a long-term gross margin grind. In the near term, though, investors will be focused on Order trends, which we feel is appropriate. To that end, all our field research shows an improving move-up market, setting the stage for upside surprises."
"Our Orders forecast is for a decline against a very difficult comparison, but if historical sequential quarterly improvements are any indication, our forecast is significantly underestimating the volume. We expect Orders of 715 units, down 13% YoY, against a tough 41% comp last year. However, since 2005, the lowest sequential improvement from the first quarter was a 40% increase. Consequently, we believe if history holds, a level around 800 units would not be surprising...Revenues are estimated down 1.2% to $308M driven by an essentially flat backlog and conversion rate."
For more ratings news on Toll Bros. click here and for the rating history of Toll Bros. click here.
Shares of Toll Bros. closed at $20.20 yesterday.
Ticonderoga analyst says, "We expect TOL will earn $0.02 per share before charges, while consensus falls below us, likely due to embedded charges. We believe TOL continues to hover around breakeven due to the elevated SG&A combined with what we believe will be a long-term gross margin grind. In the near term, though, investors will be focused on Order trends, which we feel is appropriate. To that end, all our field research shows an improving move-up market, setting the stage for upside surprises."
"Our Orders forecast is for a decline against a very difficult comparison, but if historical sequential quarterly improvements are any indication, our forecast is significantly underestimating the volume. We expect Orders of 715 units, down 13% YoY, against a tough 41% comp last year. However, since 2005, the lowest sequential improvement from the first quarter was a 40% increase. Consequently, we believe if history holds, a level around 800 units would not be surprising...Revenues are estimated down 1.2% to $308M driven by an essentially flat backlog and conversion rate."
For more ratings news on Toll Bros. click here and for the rating history of Toll Bros. click here.
Shares of Toll Bros. closed at $20.20 yesterday.
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