Ticonderoga maintains a 'Buy' on Amphenol (NYSE: APH); Quick Take on 1Q Results; June Qtr Outlook Provides Less Upside Than Typical

April 20, 2011 10:47 AM EDT
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Price: $167.11 +0.82%

Rating Summary:
    16 Buy, 12 Hold, 1 Sell

Rating Trend: Up Up

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 13 | Down: 14 | New: 11
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Ticonderoga maintains a 'Buy' on Amphenol (NYSE: APH), PT $64.

Ticonderoga analyst says, "This morning, Amphenol reported 1Q11 revenue of $940.6 million (down 1% Q/Q vs. an 11-year average of flat Q/Q performance) that exceeded our projection of $932.8 million (Street was at $937.5 million), while pro forma EPS of $0.72 was slightly above our $0.71 estimate (the Street was also at $0.71). The interconnect business (93% of revenue) revenue declined by 2% sequentially, while cable product sales (7% of revenue) grew by 7% Q/Q after a sharp decline of 12% in 4Q10. Recall, Amphenol's outlook for 1Q11 called for sales in the range of $925 million to $940 million, with pro forma EPS of $0.70 to $0.72. Overall, we believe Amphenol delivered a reasonable quarter and outlook but the EPS upside seems a bit more muted versus prints of the past. As such, this morning's rally in the stock could correct as the day progresses, in our view."

"Looking into 2Q11, APH expects sales of $985 million to $1 billion with pro forma EPS of $0.76 to $0.78. By comparison, our 2Q11 revenue estimate is $978.8 million (Street is at $980 million) and our pro forma EPS projection is $0.76 (Street is at $0.77). The mid-point of APH's 2Q11 outlook calls for sales to rise 6% sequentially, in line with the seasonal average June quarter sequential sales performance over the past 12 years. For 2011, Amphenol slightly increased its revenue outlook from a range of $3.885 billion to $3.96 billion to a range of $3.955 billion to $4 billion (versus our $3.954 billion projection), while very slightly raising its EPS outlook to a range of $3.05 to $3.11 from a previous range of $3.00 to $3.10 (versus our $3.06 estimate; the Street is at $3.07)."

For more ratings news on Amphenol click here and for the rating history of Amphenol click here.

Shares of Amphenol closed at $51.58 yesterday.


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