Q4 Preview: Aeropostale (ARO) Looks to Combat Rising Consumer Costs

March 10, 2011 12:47 PM EST
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Price: $0.15 --0%

Rating Summary:
    5 Buy, 25 Hold, 2 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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Aeropostale Inc. (NYSE: ARO) shares are up 27 cents to $25.19 in midday market movement on Thursday heading into the company's fourth-quarter results scheduled after the closing bell.

The youth focused clothing retail store operator is expected to report fourth-quarter earnings of $0.97 per share on sales of $835.50 million.

In the third-quarter, Aeropostale slightly beat the Street with earnings of $0.67 per share, a penny better than the analyst estimate. The company also reported revenue of $602.8 million last quarter, missing the consensus view of $606.8 million.

Since the start of the fourth quarter, shares of Aeropostale are down $0.28 or 1.16 percent. Year-to-date the stock is up $0.50 or 2.03 percent.

A valuation shows that Aeropostale is going for a forward P/E of 9.84x full year estimates.

Data from Bloomberg shows that 10 analysts have a Buy rating on the stock, 15 have a Hold and 6 have a Sell. The average analyst price target on Aeropostale is $26.10 with a target range of $20 to $34.

Analyst Comments:

Wells Fargo maintains an Underperform rating on Aeropostale with a valuation range of $23-$25. The firm says, "ARO's business trends have been slowing in recent quarters; we expect Q4 to be the first down comp and EPS quarter since '07. For '11, we are modeling comps down 1.5% due to merchandising issues in women's (70% of sales) and more pressure on the lower-income consumer from high food and gas prices."

Brean Murray Carret maintains a Buy rating on Aeropostale with a price target of $32 on the stock. The firm says, "We believe, with overall teen segment inventories stabilizing, that the company has the potential to once again regain market share and capitalize in a more rational pricing environment (we note Aeropostale enjoyed mid single digit AUR increases in our February pricing survey). While early, we believe the company has the pricing power to pass along price increases."


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