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Q4 Preview: SanDisk (SNDK) Results Here in a Flash, but Will Investors be Impressed?

January 27, 2011 1:28 PM EST
Get Alerts SNDK Hot Sheet
Price: $1,596.08 -0.28%

Rating Summary:
    29 Buy, 18 Hold, 2 Sell

Rating Trend: Up Up

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) shares are up 97 cents or 1.94 percent to $50.94 in midday market movement on Thursday, ahead of the release of the company's fourth-quarter results scheduled for after the closing bell.

The flash memory maker is expected to report earnings for the final three months of fiscal 2010 of $1.09 per share on revenue of $1.31 billion.

The company reported earnings in the third quarter of $1.30 per share, which beat the Street by 25 cents. SanDisk also posted revenue in the period of $1.23 billion, ahead of the estimate of $1.24 billion.

Through the fourth quarter, shares of SanDisk rose $12.23 or 32.5 percent, and are up $1.14 since the end of the period. Since same time last year the stock is up $21.06 or 70.34 percent.

A valuation shows that SandDisk is going for a forward P/E of 10.51x full year estimates.

Data from Bloomberg shows that 11 analysts have a Buy rating on the stock, 8 have a Hold and 3 have a Sell. The average analyst price target on SanDisk is $54.50 with a target range of $31 to $63.

Analyst Rating Changes Throughout the Fourth Quarter:
  • November 22, Baird upgraded SanDisk to Outperform.
  • December 6, ThinkEquity downgraded to Hold.
  • December 21, Raymond James upgraded to Outperform.
Analyst Comments:

On January 11, Deutsche Bank analysts downgraded SanDisk to Hold with a price target of $55. The firm said, "We expect 2011 will be a solid year for the NAND industry and SNDK, however this view is now largely the consensus view and we believe the risks for a cyclical downturn are elevated after three years of strong growth. Higher supply growth in 2H11 combined with potential for lower price elasticity of demand may result in sharp price declines and depress margins across the industry."

Wedbush maintains a Neutral Rating on SanDisk with a $50 price target. The firm says, "While we think SanDisk will benefit from a much more favorable NAND supply/demand and pricing environment in 2011, we think much of this “good news” is already priced into the stock and that shares of SanDisk are fairly valued at this level."

What to Look for From the SanDisk Call:

The company will likely guide for the the first quarter in line with NAND seasonality trends, but investors will be interested in the supply/demand environment moving forward.


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