Ford (F) Q1 Earning Preview: Can the Cinderella Story Continue?

Shares of Ford (NYSE: F) are trading higher ahead of the company's earnings release, expected before the market opens on Tuesday, April 27, 2010. Shares are up 1.55% to $14.13.

Ford had a Cinderella 2009, gaining about $7.50, or 300% for the year. From low's of $1.50 on February 20, 2009, shares gained about 566% to its current price...not bad for a company in a beleaguered industry that received government help left and right. Oh, Ford didn't take a dime either. Regardless, investors may be beginning to wonder whether there is still a little magic left in Ford. Through the quarter, shares rose 23.6% from an opening of $10.17 on January 4, 2010.

Ford is expected to report an EPS of $0.31 on revs of $30.49 billion. For Q409, Ford reported an EPS of $0.43, excluding some items, beating the estimate of $0.26. Revs also spanked views, $35.4 billion compared to $32.60 billion. For Q109, Ford reported a loss of $1.37, wider than views, but revs of $29.2 billion beat estimates.

Data from Bloomberg shows that 9 analysts have a Buy rating on the stock, 5 have a Hold, and 2 recommend to Sell the shares. The analyst average price target is $12.52, with a high of $18.00, and a low of $7.50.

News Through the Quarter
Most of the news through the quarter in the auto industry centered around Toyota's (NYSE: TM) "sudden acceleration" and "lack of stopping" issues with many of its models. Toyota has also come under fire recently for their Lexus GX 460 SUV having rollover problems while making sudden turns at higher speeds.

However, before that, it should be noted that Ford swept awards at the North American International Auto show. Their Ford Fusion Hybrid won 2010 Car of the Year, and Transit Connect won Truck of the Year. Click Here for more color on the awards.

Ford's sales were up 25% in January, and jumped up to a 16% market share.

As if that weren't enough , sales for the company in February soared above GM (NYSE: GM) for the first time since 1998. Ford also said that there market share was at 17% for February.

Moody's also upgraded Ford's credit rating after evaluation. Ford's new business model is generating market share gains in the US, healthy price realization, and operating performance which is stronger than that which Moody's had earlier anticipated.

Continuing, Ford reported a 42.7% increase in sales for March, the largest increase since February 1984.

Finally, at the end of the quarter, Ford to Geely for $1.8 billion.

Analyst Ratings Through the Quarter
In January, several analysts raised their price targets in Ford. The brief summary includes Barclays [$11], J.P. Morgan [$12], and UBS [$13]. Since Ford shares are now trading at $14, we won't go into too much detail with those price increases.

Standpoint Research downgraded F from Buy to Hold due to the huge stock run, but noted that they see a price range of $18 - $24 looking out to FY11/FY12.

UBS finally upgraded their outlook on Ford in March, raising their price target to $15 from $13, and maintaining their Buy rating on the stock.

Goldman Sachs has its top CL-Buy rating on the stock and a $15 price target.

Jim Cramer, showing a stroke of brilliance, said recently that he sees Ford going to $17.

Summary
Ford clearly has shown some marked improvements over the past year, swinging to profit last quarter, and gaining market share. Analysts are noticeably torn about the stock, only inching up their estimates as the milestones are hit. $11, $12, $14...to what end?

Will this quarter's results finally get the analysts less conservative on the stock and drive the first $20 price target?

With a strong product lineup, and the U.S. noticeably emerging from a recession, Ford looks to be able to grow even further. CEO Alan Mulally is on top of his game right now, the company is lean, and competitors are having more problems than anyone should wish upon them...all catalysts for Ford to gain more profit and market share.

Potential risks to more upside for Ford may include incentives offered by competitors, foreign currency fluctuations, and a rise in key commodity prices on global economic recovery.

Ford, Inc. is expected to release their Q110 earnings on Tuesday April 27, 2010, at approximately 7:00am EDT. Stay tuned to StreetInsider.com's Earnings section to see our analysis of the highly-anticipated quarterly results within seconds of their release.

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